reblogged from mikehudack
Absolutely love this New York Times ‘budget puzzle’ that lets you cut things from the U.S. federal budget and what impact it would have on the deficit.
Shows how incredibly tough it will be to get the U.S. federal government’s finances back in order.
Hard to imagine anyone in Congress will have the political capital or willpower to do it until things get bad.
Really bad.
NEW VIDEO: Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks with James Surowiecki about the causes of the 2008 financial crisis and the future of the economy.
Read James Surowiecki’s piece from this week’s issue on the regulation crisis.
reblogged from newyorker
The social effects of the SEC’s action will almost certainly be greater than the narrow legal ones. Just as there was a time when people could smoke on airplanes, or drive drunk without guilt, there was a time when a Wall Street bond trader could work with a short seller to create a bond to fail, trick and bribe the ratings companies into blessing the bond, then sell the bond to a slow-witted German without having to worry if anyone would ever know, or care, what he’d just done.
That just changed.
‘Bond Market Will Never Be the Same After Goldman’, Michael Lewis in BloombergFrom [the moment Salomon Brothers went public], though, the Wall Street firm became a black box. The shareholders who financed the risks had no real understanding of what the risk takers were doing, and as the risk-taking grew ever more complex, their understanding diminished. The moment Salomon Brothers demonstrated the potential gains to be had by the investment bank as public corporation, the psychological foundations of Wall Street shifted from trust to blind faith.
No investment bank owned by its employees would have levered itself 35 to 1 or bought and held $50 billion in mezzanine C.D.O.’s. I doubt any partnership would have sought to game the rating agencies or leap into bed with loan sharks or even allow mezzanine C.D.O.’s to be sold to its customers. The hoped-for short-term gain would not have justified the long-term hit.
‘The End of Wall Street’s Boom’ by Michael Lewis for PortfolioI spoke to another hedge fund in London so perplexed by the many bad LBOs Icelandic banks were financing that it hired private investigators to figure out what was going on in the Icelandic financial system. The investigators produced a chart detailing a byzantine web of interlinked entities that boiled down to this: A handful of guys in Iceland, who had no experience of finance, were taking out tens of billions of dollars in short-term loans from abroad. They were then re-lending this money to themselves and their friends to buy assets—the banks, soccer teams, etc. Since the entire world’s assets were rising—thanks in part to people like these Icelandic lunatics paying crazy prices for them—they appeared to be making money.
Yet another hedge-fund manager explained Icelandic banking to me this way: You have a dog, and I have a cat. We agree that they are each worth a billion dollars. You sell me the dog for a billion, and I sell you the cat for a billion. Now we are no longer pet owners, but Icelandic banks, with a billion dollars in new assets. “They created fake capital by trading assets amongst themselves at inflated values,” says a London hedge-fund manager. “This was how the banks and investment companies grew and grew. But they were lightweights in the international markets.”
‘Wall Street on the Tundra’ - Michael Lewis’s excellent Vanity Fair article on Iceland’s economic collapseMorgan Stanley CEO John Mack describes how he navigated the firm through the depths of the financial crisis last year. He comes across as quite an amazing guy.
I found watching him give this talk quite chilling - a stark reminder of how close we came to the brink of a 1930s style great depression in September 2008. When Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 on September 15th Morgan Stanley were sitting on $181 billion in cash, but at the same time they knew they were a week or two away from bankruptcy. $181 billion is a shitload of cash even for a Wall St investment bank.
At the same time, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein was calling Mack saying “You’ve got to hold on because if you go we’re 30 seconds behind you”. Anyone at all familiar with Wall St will understand the implications of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley filing for bankruptcy. That would certainly have been the beginning of an incredibly unpleasant time for the entire developed world.
- Elliot Spitzer
FT.com / Columnists / Lunch with the FT - Lunch with the FT: Eliot Spitzer (via heyitsnoah)
reblogged from heyitsnoah
